Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Ryan Vilade LF
- 3 Junior Caminero 3B
- 4 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 5 Jonny DeLuca RF
- 6 Ben Williamson 2B
- 7 Nick Fortes C
- 8 Cedric Mullins CF
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
- 1 Jarren Duran LF
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 4 Trevor Story SS
- 5 Masataka Yoshida DH
- 6 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Connor Wong C
- 9 Caleb Durbin 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| BOS | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-1 with TB listed first across 2 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.97 vs actual lineup 4.01
- Player execution +3.99 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.01 projection by 3.99 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.03 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Aranda 0-for-5 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.29 vs actual lineup 4.28
- Player execution −0.28 R/G Players fell 0.28 short of the lineup's 4.28 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.29 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 4.3 — actual was 8 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.