RunsLeft › Pitchers › Jake Bennett
Starting Pitcher · Boston Red Sox

Jake Bennett

LHP · Throws Left · Age 25Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
64.9%
64.9% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. SF. Confidence high.
ERA
3.46
FIP
–
IP
80.2
W-L
7-6
WHIP
1.07
K%
18.9
BB%
5.3
GB%
–
K/9
6.8
HR/9
0.7
Drafted by the Washington Nationals in 2022 (round 2), he was acquired by the Boston Red Sox via trade from the Washington Nationals in December 2025. He made his MLB debut on May 1, 2026.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Giants · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Giants current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .312

  1. 1 RD Rafael Devers LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rafael Devers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 600 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WA Willy Adames RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willy Adames
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 595 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JH Jung Hoo Lee LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jung Hoo Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BE Bryce Eldridge LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Eldridge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DG Drew Gilbert LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Gilbert
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CK Christian Koss RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Koss
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Drew Cavanaugh LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Cavanaugh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VB Victor Bericoto RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Bericoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 OB Osleivis Basabe RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Osleivis Basabe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

34% of pitches · .313 xwOBA allowed · 100 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
1%5%9%8%3%1%11%15%9%3%5%10%12%4%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
–.699.115.133.000–.142.327.371.000.534.297.345.435––.239.560–––––––
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
–.036.010.011.000–.016.048.034.000.026.030.040.016––.002.008–––––––
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) has allowed .313 xwOBA over 100 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 1,070-pitch sample · 2026 season

Four-Seam Fastball FF
34% usage · 21% whiff · .313 xwOBA · 93.0 mph
Changeup CH
26% usage · 32% whiff · .197 xwOBA · 83.4 mph
Sinker SI
25% usage · 7% whiff · .298 xwOBA · 92.4 mph
Sweeper ST
7% usage · 26% whiff · .299 xwOBA · 79.3 mph
Cutter FC
4% usage · 30% whiff · .287 xwOBA · 84.9 mph
Curveball CU
4% usage · .398 xwOBA · 79.0 mph
Unknown UN
1% usage
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040506/277/37/87/177/228/28/88/14
Four-Seam FastballChangeupSinker
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026 season
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB21.1 .249 74
vs. RHB18.6 .291 219
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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