Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Oneil Cruz DH
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 6 Konnor Griffin SS
- 7 Jared Triolo 3B
- 8 Billy Cook CF
- 9 Joey Bart C
- 1 Geraldo Perdomo SS
- 2 Ketel Marte 2B
- 3 Corbin Carroll RF
- 4 Adrian Del Castillo DH
- 5 Ildemaro Vargas 1B
- 6 Jose Fernandez 3B
- 7 Jorge Barrosa LF
- 8 James McCann C
- 9 Alek Thomas CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with PIT listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.40 vs actual lineup 4.39
- Player execution −0.39 R/G Players fell 0.39 short of the lineup's 4.39 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.40 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Bart HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.19 vs actual lineup 3.21
- Player execution −1.21 R/G Players fell 1.21 short of the lineup's 3.21 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Marte 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.4 – 3.2 — actual was 4 – 2.
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Don Kelly (PIT) has run 30 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 100% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
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Torey Lovullo (AZ) has run 29 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 97% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.