ARCHIVE May 6, 2026
May 6, 2026 · NL East

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals

May 6, 2026Nationals ParkCloudy 72°F · 10 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
16-21
2
vs
HOME
Washington Nationals
17-20
15

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Bailey Ober
Bailey Ober
IP 5
HOME · WSH
Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas
IP 5.1

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Byron Buxton CF
  2. 2 Brooks Lee SS
  3. 3 Trevor Larnach LF
  4. 4 Josh Bell DH
  5. 5 Kody Clemens 1B
  6. 6 Victor Caratini C
  7. 7 Luke Keaschall 2B
  8. 8 Matt Wallner RF
  9. 9 Tristan Gray 3B
HOME · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood RF
  2. 2 Daylen Lile LF
  3. 3 Curtis Mead 1B
  4. 4 CJ Abrams SS
  5. 5 Brady House 3B
  6. 6 José Tena DH
  7. 7 Jacob Young CF
  8. 8 Drew Millas C
  9. 9 Nasim Nuñez 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 001010000 2
WSH 000123270 15

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL
HOME · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
WWWLWLLWWL

Season series: 1-2 with MIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.75 vs actual lineup 4.76
  • Player execution −2.76 R/G Players fell 2.76 short of the lineup's 4.76 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.75 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Wallner HR from the 8-hole

HOME · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.13 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.19 vs actual lineup 4.06
  • Player execution +10.94 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.06 projection by 10.94 (scored 15)
  • Game variance +10.81 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Millas HR from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.2 — actual was 2 – 15.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.