ARCHIVE May 6, 2026
May 6, 2026 · NL Cent

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 6, 2026Busch StadiumCloudy 58°F · 7 mph, In From RF
AWAY
Milwaukee Brewers
19-16
6
vs
HOME
St. Louis Cardinals
21-15
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIL
Brandon Sproat
Brandon Sproat
IP 4
HOME · STL
Andre Pallante
Andre Pallante
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · MIL
  1. 1 Sal Frelick RF
  2. 2 Jackson Chourio CF
  3. 3 Brice Turang 2B
  4. 4 William Contreras C
  5. 5 Jake Bauers 1B
  6. 6 Andrew Vaughn DH
  7. 7 Tyler Black LF
  8. 8 David Hamilton 3B
  9. 9 Joey Ortiz SS
HOME · STL
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Iván Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Nathan Church LF
  8. 8 Pedro Pagés C
  9. 9 Victor Scott II CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIL 400010001 6
STL 000000011 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · STL
Oliver Marmol
B- Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
WW?LLWWWLW
HOME · STL
7-2 W1 +13 run diff
WL?WLWWWWW

Season series: 1-1 with MIL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.94 vs actual lineup 4.05
  • Player execution +1.95 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.05 projection by 1.95 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +2.06 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Contreras 0-for-4 batting 4th

HOME · St. Louis Cardinals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.82 vs actual lineup 4.90
  • Player execution −2.90 R/G Players fell 2.90 short of the lineup's 4.90 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Wetherholt 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.8 — actual was 6 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.