Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Sal Frelick RF
- 2 Jackson Chourio CF
- 3 Brice Turang 2B
- 4 William Contreras C
- 5 Jake Bauers 1B
- 6 Andrew Vaughn DH
- 7 Tyler Black LF
- 8 David Hamilton 3B
- 9 Joey Ortiz SS
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-1 with MIL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.94 vs actual lineup 4.05
- Player execution +1.95 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.05 projection by 1.95 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.06 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Contreras 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.82 vs actual lineup 4.90
- Player execution −2.90 R/G Players fell 2.90 short of the lineup's 4.90 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Wetherholt 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.8 — actual was 6 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.