ARCHIVE May 5, 2026
May 5, 2026 · AL Cent

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers

May 5, 2026Comerica ParkPartly Cloudy 54°F · 9 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Boston Red Sox
15-21
10
vs
HOME
Detroit Tigers
18-19
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BOS
Brayan Bello
Brayan Bello
IP 7
HOME · DET
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez
IP 3

Lineups

AWAY · BOS
  1. 1 Jarren Duran LF
  2. 2 Willson Contreras 1B
  3. 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
  4. 4 Trevor Story SS
  5. 5 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  6. 6 Andruw Monasterio DH
  7. 7 Caleb Durbin 3B
  8. 8 Connor Wong C
  9. 9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B
HOME · DET
  1. 1 Matt Vierling CF
  2. 2 Kevin McGonigle SS
  3. 3 Jahmai Jones DH
  4. 4 Dillon Dingler C
  5. 5 Riley Greene LF
  6. 6 Wenceel Pérez RF
  7. 7 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  8. 8 Zach McKinstry 3B
  9. 9 Hao-Yu Lee 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
BOS 305200000 10
DET 200010000 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · BOS
Chad Tracy
C- Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.1 R IBBs 0.2 R Interim
HOME · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · BOS
5-5 W1 -3 run diff
WLWWWLLWLL
HOME · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL

Season series: 5-2 with BOS listed first across 7 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Boston Red Sox
  • Manager lineup cost +0.18 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.38 vs actual lineup 4.20
  • Player execution +5.80 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.20 projection by 5.80 (scored 10)
  • Game variance +5.62 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Duran 0-for-5 batting 1st

HOME · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.93 vs actual lineup 4.85
  • Player execution −1.85 R/G Players fell 1.85 short of the lineup's 4.85 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

McGonigle 0-for-3 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.4 – 4.9 — actual was 10 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.