San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jackson Merrill CF
- 2 Manny Machado 3B
- 3 Miguel Andujar DH
- 4 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 5 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 6 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 7 Nick Castellanos LF
- 8 Luis Campusano C
- 9 Sung-Mun Song 2B
- 1 Jung Hoo Lee RF
- 2 Casey Schmitt 2B
- 3 Rafael Devers 1B
- 4 Heliot Ramos LF
- 5 Bryce Eldridge DH
- 6 Matt Chapman 3B
- 7 Willy Adames SS
- 8 Drew Gilbert CF
- 9 Jesus Rodriguez C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| SF | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with SD listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.72 vs actual lineup 4.80
- Player execution +5.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.80 projection by 5.20 (scored 10)
- Game variance +5.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Machado 0-for-5 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost −0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.87
- Player execution +0.13 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.87 projection by 0.13 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rodriguez HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.8 — actual was 10 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.