Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Drake Baldwin C
- 2 Ozzie Albies 2B
- 3 Matt Olson 1B
- 4 Michael Harris II LF
- 5 Mauricio Dubón CF
- 6 Austin Riley 3B
- 7 Dominic Smith DH
- 8 Mike Yastrzemski RF
- 9 Jorge Mateo SS
- 1 J.P. Crawford SS
- 2 Cal Raleigh DH
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Luke Raley RF
- 7 Cole Young 2B
- 8 Mitch Garver C
- 9 Leo Rivas 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with ATL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.16 vs actual lineup 3.08
- Player execution −0.08 R/G Players fell 0.08 short of the lineup's 3.08 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Baldwin 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.83 vs actual lineup 2.91
- Player execution −0.91 R/G Players fell 0.91 short of the lineup's 2.91 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −0.83 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Raleigh 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 2.8 — actual was 3 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.