ARCHIVE May 5, 2026
May 5, 2026 · AL West

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners

May 5, 2026T-Mobile ParkClear 64°F · 5 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Atlanta Braves
26-11
3
vs
HOME
Seattle Mariners
17-20
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · ATL
Bryce Elder
Bryce Elder
IP 6
HOME · SEA
George Kirby
George Kirby
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · ATL
  1. 1 Drake Baldwin C
  2. 2 Ozzie Albies 2B
  3. 3 Matt Olson 1B
  4. 4 Michael Harris II LF
  5. 5 Mauricio Dubón CF
  6. 6 Austin Riley 3B
  7. 7 Dominic Smith DH
  8. 8 Mike Yastrzemski RF
  9. 9 Jorge Mateo SS
HOME · SEA
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh DH
  3. 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Luke Raley RF
  7. 7 Cole Young 2B
  8. 8 Mitch Garver C
  9. 9 Leo Rivas 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
ATL 000200001 3
SEA 002000000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · ATL
Walt Weiss
C+ Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 0.2 R
HOME · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · ATL
7-3 L1 +18 run diff
LWLWWWLWWW
HOME · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
WWLWLLLWWL

Season series: 1-2 with ATL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Atlanta Braves
  • Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.16 vs actual lineup 3.08
  • Player execution −0.08 R/G Players fell 0.08 short of the lineup's 3.08 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Baldwin 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.83 vs actual lineup 2.91
  • Player execution −0.91 R/G Players fell 0.91 short of the lineup's 2.91 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −0.83 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Raleigh 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 2.8 — actual was 3 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.