ARCHIVE May 5, 2026
May 5, 2026 · AL East

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays

May 5, 2026Tropicana FieldDome 72°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Toronto Blue Jays
16-20
3
vs
HOME
Tampa Bay Rays
23-12
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TOR
Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman
IP 6
HOME · TB
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · TOR
  1. 1 George Springer DH
  2. 2 Yohendrick Pinango LF
  3. 3 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  4. 4 Jesús Sánchez RF
  5. 5 Lenyn Sosa 1B
  6. 6 Daulton Varsho CF
  7. 7 Ernie Clement 2B
  8. 8 Andrés Giménez SS
  9. 9 Brandon Valenzuela C
HOME · TB
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  4. 4 Yandy Díaz DH
  5. 5 Jake Fraley RF
  6. 6 Ben Williamson SS
  7. 7 Cedric Mullins CF
  8. 8 Hunter Feduccia C
  9. 9 Richie Palacios 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
TOR 110010000 3
TB 001100020 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R
HOME · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
WLLLLWWLWW
HOME · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW

Season series: 0-3 with TOR listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.04 vs actual lineup 3.09
  • Player execution −0.09 R/G Players fell 0.09 short of the lineup's 3.09 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Springer 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.44 vs actual lineup 3.39
  • Player execution +0.61 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.39 projection by 0.61 (scored 4)
  • Game variance +0.56 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.0 – 3.4 — actual was 3 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.