ARCHIVE May 5, 2026
May 5, 2026 · NL East

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies

May 5, 2026Citizens Bank ParkPartly Cloudy 79°F · 20 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Oakland Athletics
18-17
1
vs
HOME
Philadelphia Phillies
16-20
9

Starting pitchers

AWAY · ATH
Luis Severino
Luis Severino
IP 5
HOME · PHI
Cristopher Sánchez
Cristopher Sánchez
IP 8

Lineups

AWAY · ATH
  1. 1 Jacob Wilson SS
  2. 2 Brent Rooker DH
  3. 3 Nick Kurtz 1B
  4. 4 Colby Thomas RF
  5. 5 Zack Gelof CF
  6. 6 Tyler Soderstrom LF
  7. 7 Austin Wynns C
  8. 8 Darell Hernaiz 2B
  9. 9 Brett Harris 3B
HOME · PHI
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Adolis García RF
  5. 5 Brandon Marsh LF
  6. 6 J.T. Realmuto C
  7. 7 Bryson Stott 2B
  8. 8 Alec Bohm 3B
  9. 9 Justin Crawford CF

Box score

  123456789 R
ATH 000000001 1
PHI 001000530 9

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · ATH
Mark Kotsay
C- Lineup 2.6 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 1.1 R
HOME · PHI
Don Mattingly
C- Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.7 R Interim

Recent form

AWAY · ATH
5-5 W2 -1 run diff
WWLLWLLWWL
HOME · PHI
7-3 L2 +3 run diff
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Season series: 1-2 with ATH listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Oakland Athletics
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.88 vs actual lineup 2.88
  • Player execution −1.88 R/G Players fell 1.88 short of the lineup's 2.88 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −1.88 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Rooker 0-for-4 batting 2nd

HOME · Philadelphia Phillies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.16 vs actual lineup 4.07
  • Player execution +4.93 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.07 projection by 4.93 (scored 9)
  • Game variance +4.84 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Stott HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.9 – 4.2 — actual was 1 – 9.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.