Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 JJ Bleday LF
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 2B
- 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 6 Spencer Steer 1B
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Will Benson RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Michael Busch 1B
- 7 Carson Kelly C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-4 with CIN listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.49 vs actual lineup 3.44
- Player execution +0.56 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.44 projection by 0.56 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.51 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Hayes HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.39 vs actual lineup 4.30
- Player execution +0.70 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.30 projection by 0.70 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.61 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Happ 0-for-3 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.4 — actual was 4 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.