ARCHIVE May 4, 2026
May 4, 2026 · AL East

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

May 4, 2026Yankee StadiumClear 70°F · 13 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles
15-20
1
vs
HOME
New York Yankees
24-11
12

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BAL
Shane Baz
Shane Baz
IP 5.2
HOME · NYY
Cam Schlittler
Cam Schlittler
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · BAL
  1. 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
  2. 2 Adley Rutschman C
  3. 3 Dylan Beavers RF
  4. 4 Pete Alonso 1B
  5. 5 Samuel Basallo DH
  6. 6 Leody Taveras CF
  7. 7 Colton Cowser LF
  8. 8 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
  9. 9 Blaze Alexander 3B
HOME · NYY
  1. 1 Trent Grisham CF
  2. 2 Aaron Judge RF
  3. 3 Cody Bellinger LF
  4. 4 Jasson Domínguez DH
  5. 5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  6. 6 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
  7. 7 Austin Wells C
  8. 8 Ryan McMahon 3B
  9. 9 José Caballero SS

Box score

  123456789 R
BAL 000001000 1
NYY 201003060 12

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R
HOME · NYY
Aaron Boone
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 1.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
LLWWLLLLWL
HOME · NYY
7-3 L1 +26 run diff
LWLWWWWWLW

Season series: 0-4 with BAL listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.54 vs actual lineup 2.53
  • Player execution −1.53 R/G Players fell 1.53 short of the lineup's 2.53 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −1.53 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Alexander 3-for-4 from the 9-hole

HOME · New York Yankees
  • Manager lineup cost +0.26 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.60 vs actual lineup 4.34
  • Player execution +7.66 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.34 projection by 7.66 (scored 12)
  • Game variance +7.40 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.5 – 4.6 — actual was 1 – 12.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.