ARCHIVE May 4, 2026
May 4, 2026 · AL Cent

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals

May 4, 2026Kauffman StadiumPartly Cloudy 80°F · 8 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Cleveland Guardians
18-18
2
vs
HOME
Kansas City Royals
16-19
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CLE
Tanner Bibee
Tanner Bibee
IP 4
HOME · KC
Michael Wacha
Michael Wacha
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan LF
  2. 2 Daniel Schneemann CF
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Rhys Hoskins 1B
  5. 5 Travis Bazzana 2B
  6. 6 David Fry DH
  7. 7 Angel Martínez RF
  8. 8 Bo Naylor C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS
HOME · KC
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
  3. 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
  4. 4 Salvador Perez DH
  5. 5 Carter Jensen C
  6. 6 Lane Thomas CF
  7. 7 Jac Caglianone RF
  8. 8 Isaac Collins LF
  9. 9 Nick Loftin 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
CLE 020000000 2
KC 000401100 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
WWWLLLWWWL
HOME · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL

Season series: 3-2 with CLE listed first across 5 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.44 vs actual lineup 3.43
  • Player execution −1.43 R/G Players fell 1.43 short of the lineup's 3.43 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.44 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Kwan 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.38 vs actual lineup 4.42
  • Player execution +1.58 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.42 projection by 1.58 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.62 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Caglianone HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.4 – 4.4 — actual was 2 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.