ARCHIVE May 4, 2026
May 4, 2026 · AL East

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays

May 4, 2026Tropicana FieldDome 72°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Toronto Blue Jays
16-19
1
vs
HOME
Tampa Bay Rays
22-12
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TOR
Eric Lauer
Eric Lauer
IP 4.1
HOME · TB
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · TOR
  1. 1 Yohendrick Piñango LF
  2. 2 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
  4. 4 Jesús Sánchez RF
  5. 5 Ernie Clement 2B
  6. 6 Daulton Varsho DH
  7. 7 Myles Straw CF
  8. 8 Andrés Giménez SS
  9. 9 Brandon Valenzuela C
HOME · TB
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Ryan Vilade RF
  4. 4 Yandy Díaz DH
  5. 5 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  6. 6 Jonny DeLuca CF
  7. 7 Ben Williamson 2B
  8. 8 Nick Fortes C
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS

Box score

  123456789 R
TOR 001000000 1
TB 300002000 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R
HOME · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
WLLLLWWLWW
HOME · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW

Season series: 0-3 with TOR listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.33 vs actual lineup 2.37
  • Player execution −1.37 R/G Players fell 1.37 short of the lineup's 2.37 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −1.33 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.70 vs actual lineup 4.75
  • Player execution +0.25 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.75 projection by 0.25 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.30 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Caminero 0-for-3 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.3 – 4.7 — actual was 1 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.