Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yohendrick Piñango LF
- 2 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
- 4 Jesús Sánchez RF
- 5 Ernie Clement 2B
- 6 Daulton Varsho DH
- 7 Myles Straw CF
- 8 Andrés Giménez SS
- 9 Brandon Valenzuela C
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Ryan Vilade RF
- 4 Yandy Díaz DH
- 5 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 6 Jonny DeLuca CF
- 7 Ben Williamson 2B
- 8 Nick Fortes C
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TB | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with TOR listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.33 vs actual lineup 2.37
- Player execution −1.37 R/G Players fell 1.37 short of the lineup's 2.37 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −1.33 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.70 vs actual lineup 4.75
- Player execution +0.25 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.75 projection by 0.25 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.30 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Caminero 0-for-3 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 2.3 – 4.7 — actual was 1 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.