Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
- 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
- 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
- 4 Salvador Perez DH
- 5 Carter Jensen C
- 6 Jac Caglianone RF
- 7 Isaac Collins LF
- 8 Michael Massey 2B
- 9 Kyle Isbel CF
- 1 Rob Refsnyder DH
- 2 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 3 Josh Naylor 1B
- 4 Randy Arozarena LF
- 5 J.P. Crawford SS
- 6 Cole Young 2B
- 7 Connor Joe RF
- 8 Jhonny Pereda C
- 9 Leo Rivas 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with KC listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.75 vs actual lineup 4.74
- Player execution −0.74 R/G Players fell 0.74 short of the lineup's 4.74 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.75 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Collins 2-for-2 from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.57 vs actual lineup 3.47
- Player execution −2.47 R/G Players fell 2.47 short of the lineup's 3.47 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.57 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Arozarena 0-for-4 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.6 — actual was 4 – 1.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.