ARCHIVE May 3, 2026
May 3, 2026 · NL East

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

May 3, 2026loanDepot parkRoof Closed 72°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Philadelphia Phillies
14-20
7
vs
HOME
Miami Marlins
16-18
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · PHI
Jesús Luzardo
Jesús Luzardo
IP 6.1
HOME · MIA
Tyler Phillips
Tyler Phillips
IP 3

Lineups

AWAY · PHI
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Alec Bohm 3B
  5. 5 Brandon Marsh RF
  6. 6 J.T. Realmuto C
  7. 7 Bryson Stott 2B
  8. 8 Felix Reyes LF
  9. 9 Justin Crawford CF
HOME · MIA
  1. 1 Otto Lopez SS
  2. 2 Agustín Ramírez C
  3. 3 Kyle Stowers RF
  4. 4 Connor Norby 1B
  5. 5 Xavier Edwards 2B
  6. 6 Christopher Morel DH
  7. 7 Leo Jiménez 3B
  8. 8 Esteury Ruiz CF
  9. 9 Javier Sanoja LF

Box score

  123456789 R
PHI 601000000 7
MIA 000000200 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · PHI
Don Mattingly
C- Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.7 R Interim
HOME · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · PHI
7-3 L2 +3 run diff
LLWWWWLWWW
HOME · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW

Season series: 3-1 with PHI listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Philadelphia Phillies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.51 vs actual lineup 2.51
  • Player execution +4.49 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.51 projection by 4.49 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +4.49 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Stott HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.83 vs actual lineup 4.80
  • Player execution −2.80 R/G Players fell 2.80 short of the lineup's 4.80 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.83 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ruiz HR from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.5 – 4.8 — actual was 7 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.