San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Heliot Ramos LF
- 2 Rafael Devers 1B
- 3 Casey Schmitt DH
- 4 Luis Arraez 2B
- 5 Matt Chapman 3B
- 6 Willy Adames SS
- 7 Jung Hoo Lee CF
- 8 Jerar Encarnacion RF
- 9 Eric Haase C
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Jonathan Aranda DH
- 4 Ryan Vilade 1B
- 5 Jake Fraley RF
- 6 Ben Williamson 2B
- 7 Cedric Mullins CF
- 8 Nick Fortes C
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with SF listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.83 vs actual lineup 3.79
- Player execution −2.79 R/G Players fell 2.79 short of the lineup's 3.79 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.83 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Arraez 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.39 vs actual lineup 4.35
- Player execution −2.35 R/G Players fell 2.35 short of the lineup's 4.35 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.39 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Simpson 0-for-5 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 4.4 — actual was 1 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.