Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ketel Marte 2B
- 2 Geraldo Perdomo SS
- 3 Corbin Carroll RF
- 4 Ildemaro Vargas 1B
- 5 Nolan Arenado 3B
- 6 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
- 7 Gabriel Moreno C
- 8 Jose Fernandez DH
- 9 Jorge Barrosa CF
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Michael Busch 1B
- 7 Carson Kelly C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with AZ listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.82 vs actual lineup 4.90
- Player execution −0.90 R/G Players fell 0.90 short of the lineup's 4.90 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Moreno HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.86
- Player execution +3.14 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.86 projection by 3.14 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.14 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Bregman 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.9 — actual was 4 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.