ARCHIVE May 2, 2026
May 2, 2026 · NL East

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals

May 2, 2026Nationals ParkPartly Cloudy 58°F · 7 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Milwaukee Brewers
18-14
4
vs
HOME
Washington Nationals
15-19
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIL
Kyle Harrison
Kyle Harrison
IP 6
HOME · WSH
Foster Griffin
Foster Griffin
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · MIL
  1. 1 Garrett Mitchell CF
  2. 2 Brice Turang 2B
  3. 3 William Contreras DH
  4. 4 Gary Sánchez C
  5. 5 Jake Bauers 1B
  6. 6 Luis Rengifo 3B
  7. 7 Brandon Lockridge LF
  8. 8 Sal Frelick RF
  9. 9 Joey Ortiz SS
HOME · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood LF
  2. 2 Curtis Mead 1B
  3. 3 Brady House 3B
  4. 4 CJ Abrams SS
  5. 5 Jacob Young CF
  6. 6 Daylen Lile DH
  7. 7 Joey Wiemer RF
  8. 8 Nasim Nuñez 2B
  9. 9 Keibert Ruiz C

Box score

  123456789 R
MIL 300000010 4
WSH 000100000 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
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HOME · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
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Season series: 2-4 with MIL listed first across 6 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.72 vs actual lineup 2.68
  • Player execution +1.32 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.68 projection by 1.32 (scored 4)
  • Game variance +1.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Sánchez 0-for-4 batting 4th

HOME · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.77 vs actual lineup 2.75
  • Player execution −1.74 R/G Players fell 1.74 short of the lineup's 2.75 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −1.77 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.7 – 2.8 — actual was 4 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.