Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Carlos Correa SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Christian Walker 1B
- 5 Jose Altuve 2B
- 6 Yainer Diaz C
- 7 Brice Matthews CF
- 8 Cam Smith RF
- 9 Dustin Harris LF
- 1 Jarren Duran DH
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Roman Anthony LF
- 4 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 5 Trevor Story SS
- 6 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 7 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 8 Connor Wong C
- 9 Caleb Durbin 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade D+ / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with HOU listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.81 vs actual lineup 3.88
- Player execution +2.12 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.88 projection by 2.12 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Matthews HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.17 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.44 vs actual lineup 2.26
- Player execution +0.74 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.26 projection by 0.74 (scored 3)
- Game variance +0.56 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 2.4 — actual was 6 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.