ARCHIVE May 1, 2026
May 1, 2026 · AL West

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners

May 1, 2026T-Mobile ParkPartly Cloudy 68°F · 8 mph, L To R
AWAY
Kansas City Royals
13-19
7
vs
HOME
Seattle Mariners
16-17
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · KC
Cole Ragans
Cole Ragans
IP 5.1
HOME · SEA
Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · KC
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
  3. 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
  4. 4 Salvador Perez C
  5. 5 Carter Jensen DH
  6. 6 Jac Caglianone RF
  7. 7 Isaac Collins LF
  8. 8 Michael Massey 2B
  9. 9 Kyle Isbel CF
HOME · SEA
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh C
  3. 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Mitch Garver DH
  7. 7 Cole Young 2B
  8. 8 Connor Joe RF
  9. 9 Leo Rivas 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
KC 400002010 7
SEA 200011200 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL
HOME · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
WWLWLLLWWL

Season series: 3-0 with KC listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.31 vs actual lineup 4.32
  • Player execution +2.68 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.32 projection by 2.68 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +2.69 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.89 vs actual lineup 4.86
  • Player execution +1.14 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.86 projection by 1.14 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.11 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Raleigh 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 4.9 — actual was 7 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.