Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Kyle Schwarber DH
- 2 Bryce Harper 1B
- 3 Adolis García RF
- 4 Brandon Marsh LF
- 5 Edmundo Sosa SS
- 6 Bryson Stott 2B
- 7 Alec Bohm 3B
- 8 Justin Crawford CF
- 9 Rafael Marchán C
- 1 Jakob Marsee CF
- 2 Kyle Stowers LF
- 3 Otto Lopez SS
- 4 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 5 Liam Hicks C
- 6 Agustín Ramírez DH
- 7 Owen Caissie RF
- 8 Christopher Morel 1B
- 9 Javier Sanoja 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-1 with PHI listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.16 vs actual lineup 4.09
- Player execution +1.91 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.09 projection by 1.91 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.84 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Schwarber 0-for-5 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.82 vs actual lineup 2.76
- Player execution +2.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.76 projection by 2.24 (scored 5)
- Game variance +2.18 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Stowers 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.2 – 2.8 — actual was 6 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.