ARCHIVE April 30, 2026
April 30, 2026 · AL West

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics

April 30, 2026Sutter Health ParkSunny 74°F · 2 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Kansas City Royals
12-19
3
vs
HOME
Oakland Athletics
17-14
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · KC
Noah Cameron
Noah Cameron
IP 5.1
HOME · ATH
Jeffrey Springs
Jeffrey Springs
IP 3

Lineups

AWAY · KC
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt SS
  3. 3 Lane Thomas CF
  4. 4 Salvador Perez 1B
  5. 5 Nick Loftin 2B
  6. 6 Starling Marte RF
  7. 7 Carter Jensen DH
  8. 8 Isaac Collins LF
  9. 9 Elias Díaz C
HOME · ATH
  1. 1 Jacob Wilson SS
  2. 2 Shea Langeliers DH
  3. 3 Nick Kurtz 1B
  4. 4 Colby Thomas RF
  5. 5 Darell Hernaiz 3B
  6. 6 Carlos Cortes LF
  7. 7 Austin Wynns C
  8. 8 Zack Gelof 2B
  9. 9 Lawrence Butler CF

Box score

  123456789 R
KC 110000010 3
ATH 140000100 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · ATH
Mark Kotsay
C- Lineup 2.6 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 1.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL
HOME · ATH
5-5 W2 -1 run diff
WWLLWLLWWL

Season series: 1-2 with KC listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.78 vs actual lineup 3.73
  • Player execution −0.73 R/G Players fell 0.73 short of the lineup's 3.73 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.78 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Díaz HR from the 9-hole

HOME · Oakland Athletics
  • Manager lineup cost +0.17 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 5.07 vs actual lineup 4.90
  • Player execution +1.10 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.90 projection by 1.10 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +0.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 5.1 — actual was 3 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.