ARCHIVE April 30, 2026
April 30, 2026 · NL Cent

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers

April 30, 2026American Family FieldRoof Closed 64°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Arizona Diamondbacks
16-14
1
vs
HOME
Milwaukee Brewers
16-14
13

Starting pitchers

AWAY · AZ
Michael Soroka
Michael Soroka
IP 3
HOME · MIL
Shane Drohan
Shane Drohan
IP 4

Lineups

AWAY · AZ
  1. 1 Geraldo Perdomo SS
  2. 2 Ketel Marte 2B
  3. 3 Corbin Carroll RF
  4. 4 Adrian Del Castillo DH
  5. 5 Ildemaro Vargas 1B
  6. 6 Lourdes Gurriel LF
  7. 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
  8. 8 Alek Thomas CF
  9. 9 James McCann C
HOME · MIL
  1. 1 Garrett Mitchell CF
  2. 2 Brice Turang 2B
  3. 3 William Contreras C
  4. 4 Jake Bauers 1B
  5. 5 Tyler Black DH
  6. 6 Luis Rengifo 3B
  7. 7 Sal Frelick RF
  8. 8 Greg Jones LF
  9. 9 David Hamilton SS

Box score

  123456789 R
AZ 000100000 1
MIL 303203110 13

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · AZ
Torey Lovullo
C- Lineup 2.0 R Bunts 2.1 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · AZ
3-7 L2 -15 run diff
LLWLLLLWLW
HOME · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
WW?LLWWWLW

Season series: 1-2 with AZ listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Manager lineup cost +0.16 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.09 vs actual lineup 3.93
  • Player execution −2.93 R/G Players fell 2.93 short of the lineup's 3.93 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −3.09 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Perdomo 0-for-3 batting 1st

HOME · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.30 vs actual lineup 4.37
  • Player execution +8.63 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.37 projection by 8.63 (scored 13)
  • Game variance +8.70 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Frelick HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 4.3 — actual was 1 – 13.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.