ARCHIVE April 28, 2026
April 28, 2026 · NL Cent

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds

April 28, 2026Great American Ball ParkPartly Cloudy 72°F · 7 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Colorado Rockies
13-17
2
vs
HOME
Cincinnati Reds
19-10
7

Starting pitchers

AWAY · COL
Kyle Freeland
Kyle Freeland
IP 5
HOME · CIN
Chase Burns
Chase Burns
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · COL
  1. 1 Edouard Julien 2B
  2. 2 Mickey Moniak CF
  3. 3 Hunter Goodman C
  4. 4 TJ Rumfield DH
  5. 5 Tyler Freeman RF
  6. 6 Troy Johnston 1B
  7. 7 Kyle Karros 3B
  8. 8 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  9. 9 Jake McCarthy LF
HOME · CIN
  1. 1 Dane Myers CF
  2. 2 Matt McLain 2B
  3. 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
  4. 4 Sal Stewart 1B
  5. 5 Spencer Steer LF
  6. 6 Nathaniel Lowe DH
  7. 7 Tyler Stephenson C
  8. 8 Rece Hinds RF
  9. 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
COL 001010000 2
CIN 301000030 7

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R
HOME · CIN
Terry Francona
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 0.8 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
WWL?LLLLLW
HOME · CIN
1-9 L8 -46 run diff
LLLLLLLLWL

Season series: 1-2 with COL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.08 vs actual lineup 3.08
  • Player execution −1.08 R/G Players fell 1.08 short of the lineup's 3.08 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.08 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Goodman 0-for-5 batting 3rd

HOME · Cincinnati Reds
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.47 vs actual lineup 3.42
  • Player execution +3.58 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.42 projection by 3.58 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +3.53 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

McLain 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.5 — actual was 2 – 7.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.