ARCHIVE April 28, 2026
April 28, 2026 · AL Cent

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians

April 28, 2026Progressive FieldPartly Cloudy 61°F · 8 mph, L To R
AWAY
Tampa Bay Rays
18-11
1
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
15-16
0

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TB
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez
IP 7
HOME · CLE
Tanner Bibee
Tanner Bibee
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · TB
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  4. 4 Yandy Díaz DH
  5. 5 Jake Fraley RF
  6. 6 Cedric Mullins CF
  7. 7 Nick Fortes C
  8. 8 Richie Palacios 2B
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS
HOME · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan LF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter DH
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 Daniel Schneemann CF
  6. 6 Angel Martínez RF
  7. 7 Travis Bazzana 2B
  8. 8 Bo Naylor C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS

Box score

  123456789 R
TB 000010000 1
CLE 000000000 0

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW
HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
WWWLLLWWWL

Season series: 2-1 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.37 vs actual lineup 4.28
  • Player execution −3.28 R/G Players fell 3.28 short of the lineup's 4.28 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −3.37 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.43 vs actual lineup 2.40
  • Player execution −2.40 R/G Players fell 2.40 short of the lineup's 2.40 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −2.43 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ramírez 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.4 – 2.4 — actual was 1 – 0.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.