ARCHIVE April 28, 2026
April 28, 2026 · NL West

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers

April 28, 2026UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumClear 66°F · 9 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Miami Marlins
14-16
2
vs
HOME
Los Angeles Dodgers
20-10
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIA
Janson Junk
Janson Junk
IP 6
HOME · LAD
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Kyle Stowers LF
  3. 3 Otto Lopez SS
  4. 4 Xavier Edwards 2B
  5. 5 Agustín Ramírez C
  6. 6 Connor Norby DH
  7. 7 Owen Caissie RF
  8. 8 Christopher Morel 1B
  9. 9 Graham Pauley 3B
HOME · LAD
  1. 1 Dalton Rushing DH
  2. 2 Freddie Freeman 1B
  3. 3 Will Smith C
  4. 4 Kyle Tucker RF
  5. 5 Max Muncy 3B
  6. 6 Teoscar Hernández LF
  7. 7 Andy Pages CF
  8. 8 Hyeseong Kim SS
  9. 9 Alex Freeland 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
MIA 010010000 2
LAD 000000010 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · LAD
Dave Roberts
B Lineup 0.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.0 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW
HOME · LAD
5-5 W1 +16 run diff
WLWWLLLLWW

Season series: 2-1 with MIA listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.41 vs actual lineup 2.39
  • Player execution −0.39 R/G Players fell 0.39 short of the lineup's 2.39 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −0.41 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marsee 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.29 vs actual lineup 3.30
  • Player execution −2.30 R/G Players fell 2.30 short of the lineup's 3.30 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.29 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Rushing 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.4 – 3.3 — actual was 2 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.