Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 3 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Michael Busch 1B
- 6 Carson Kelly C
- 7 Dansby Swanson SS
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Matt Shaw 3B
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. 2B
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 5 Ty France 1B
- 6 Gavin Sheets DH
- 7 Luis Campusano C
- 8 Bryce Johnson RF
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with CHC listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.88
- Player execution +3.12 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.88 projection by 3.12 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Crow-Armstrong HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.42 vs actual lineup 3.35
- Player execution −0.35 R/G Players fell 0.35 short of the lineup's 3.35 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.42 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Jr. 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.4 — actual was 8 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.