St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds DH
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 6 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 7 Konnor Griffin SS
- 8 Jake Mangum LF
- 9 Henry Davis C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 4-0 with STL listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.83
- Player execution +6.17 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.83 projection by 6.17 (scored 11)
- Game variance +6.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
II HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.90 vs actual lineup 4.81
- Player execution +2.19 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.81 projection by 2.19 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Griffin HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.9 — actual was 11 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.