Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Carlos Correa SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Jose Altuve 2B
- 5 Christian Walker 1B
- 6 Yainer Diaz C
- 7 Dustin Harris LF
- 8 Cam Smith RF
- 9 Brice Matthews CF
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward LF
- 3 Adley Rutschman C
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Samuel Basallo DH
- 6 Leody Taveras CF
- 7 Dylan Beavers RF
- 8 Coby Mayo 3B
- 9 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade D+ / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with HOU listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.10 vs actual lineup 4.15
- Player execution −1.15 R/G Players fell 1.15 short of the lineup's 4.15 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Matthews HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 5.00 vs actual lineup 4.95
- Player execution +0.05 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.95 projection by 0.05 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.00 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 5.0 — actual was 3 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.