Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Kevin McGonigle SS
- 2 Gleyber Torres 2B
- 3 Colt Keith 3B
- 4 Riley Greene DH
- 5 Spencer Torkelson 1B
- 6 Kerry Carpenter LF
- 7 Matt Vierling CF
- 8 Wenceel Pérez RF
- 9 Jake Rogers C
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 6 Spencer Steer RF
- 7 JJ Bleday LF
- 8 Jose Trevino C
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with DET listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.58 vs actual lineup 3.52
- Player execution +4.48 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.52 projection by 4.48 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.42 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.79 vs actual lineup 3.79
- Player execution −0.79 R/G Players fell 0.79 short of the lineup's 3.79 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.79 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Stewart 0-for-4 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.6 – 3.8 — actual was 8 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.