Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jarren Duran LF
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Roman Anthony DH
- 4 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 5 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 6 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 7 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 8 Connor Wong C
- 9 Andruw Monasterio SS
- 1 Taylor Ward LF
- 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 3 Adley Rutschman DH
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Tyler O'Neill RF
- 6 Samuel Basallo C
- 7 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 8 Dylan Beavers CF
- 9 Blaze Alexander 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.06 vs actual lineup 4.05
- Player execution +0.95 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.05 projection by 0.95 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.94 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Duran 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.27 vs actual lineup 3.29
- Player execution −0.29 R/G Players fell 0.29 short of the lineup's 3.29 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ward 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 3.3 — actual was 5 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.