Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 4 Trevor Story SS
- 5 Andruw Monasterio DH
- 6 Jarren Duran LF
- 7 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 8 Connor Wong C
- 9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B
- 1 Taylor Ward DH
- 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 3 Adley Rutschman C
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Tyler O'Neill RF
- 6 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 7 Leody Taveras CF
- 8 Coby Mayo 3B
- 9 Blaze Alexander LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.15 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.49 vs actual lineup 3.34
- Player execution +13.66 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.34 projection by 13.66 (scored 17)
- Game variance +13.51 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Durbin HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.87 vs actual lineup 4.95
- Player execution −3.95 R/G Players fell 3.95 short of the lineup's 4.95 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.87 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Henderson 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.9 — actual was 17 – 1.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.