Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds RF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn DH
- 5 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 6 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 7 Jake Mangum LF
- 8 Konnor Griffin SS
- 9 Henry Davis C
- 1 Brice Turang 2B
- 2 William Contreras C
- 3 Jake Bauers 1B
- 4 Tyler Black DH
- 5 Garrett Mitchell CF
- 6 Sal Frelick RF
- 7 Greg Jones LF
- 8 David Hamilton 3B
- 9 Joey Ortiz SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with PIT listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.54 vs actual lineup 3.47
- Player execution +2.53 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.47 projection by 2.53 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.46 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Cruz 0-for-5 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.38 vs actual lineup 3.45
- Player execution −0.45 R/G Players fell 0.45 short of the lineup's 3.45 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.38 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Contreras 0-for-5 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 3.4 — actual was 6 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.