Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Byron Buxton DH
- 2 Trevor Larnach LF
- 3 Austin Martin CF
- 4 Victor Caratini C
- 5 Kody Clemens 1B
- 6 Royce Lewis 3B
- 7 Matt Wallner RF
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 Tristan Gray 2B
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Yandy Díaz DH
- 5 Jonny DeLuca RF
- 6 Cedric Mullins CF
- 7 Ben Williamson 2B
- 8 Nick Fortes C
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with MIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.15 vs actual lineup 3.12
- Player execution −1.12 R/G Players fell 1.12 short of the lineup's 3.12 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lee HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.11 vs actual lineup 3.06
- Player execution +2.94 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.06 projection by 2.94 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.89 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Simpson 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.1 — actual was 2 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.