Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jakob Marsee CF
- 2 Kyle Stowers LF
- 3 Otto Lopez SS
- 4 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 5 Liam Hicks C
- 6 Agustín Ramírez DH
- 7 Owen Caissie RF
- 8 Graham Pauley 3B
- 9 Connor Norby 1B
- 1 Willy Adames SS
- 2 Luis Arraez 2B
- 3 Matt Chapman 3B
- 4 Rafael Devers 1B
- 5 Casey Schmitt DH
- 6 Jung Hoo Lee RF
- 7 Heliot Ramos LF
- 8 Drew Gilbert CF
- 9 Eric Haase C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with MIA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.77
- Player execution +4.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.77 projection by 4.23 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.14 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Norby HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.51 vs actual lineup 3.46
- Player execution +0.54 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.46 projection by 0.54 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.49 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Adames 0-for-5 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 3.5 — actual was 9 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.