Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 J.P. Crawford SS
- 2 Cal Raleigh C
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Luke Raley RF
- 7 Dominic Canzone DH
- 8 Cole Young 2B
- 9 Leo Rivas 3B
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera C
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman DH
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church CF
- 8 Ramón Urías 3B
- 9 José Fermín LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with SEA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.92 vs actual lineup 3.90
- Player execution −0.90 R/G Players fell 0.90 short of the lineup's 3.90 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.92 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Raleigh 0-for-3 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.21
- Player execution −1.21 R/G Players fell 1.21 short of the lineup's 3.21 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.20 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Burleson 0-for-3 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 3.2 — actual was 3 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.