ARCHIVE April 24, 2026
April 24, 2026 · AL East

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays

April 24, 2026Rogers CentreRoof Closed 68°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Cleveland Guardians
15-12
8
vs
HOME
Toronto Blue Jays
10-15
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CLE
Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
IP 6
HOME · TOR
Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer
IP 2.1

Lineups

AWAY · CLE
  1. 1 Daniel Schneemann 2B
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter RF
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 Rhys Hoskins DH
  6. 6 George Valera LF
  7. 7 Angel Martínez CF
  8. 8 Bo Naylor C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS
HOME · TOR
  1. 1 Nathan Lukes RF
  2. 2 Ernie Clement 2B
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
  4. 4 Jesús Sánchez LF
  5. 5 Lenyn Sosa DH
  6. 6 Daulton Varsho CF
  7. 7 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  8. 8 Andrés Giménez SS
  9. 9 Tyler Heineman C

Box score

  123456789 R
CLE 502001000 8
TOR 210012000 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
WWWLLLWWWL
HOME · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
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Season series: 1-2 with CLE listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.77 vs actual lineup 4.73
  • Player execution +3.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.73 projection by 3.27 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +3.23 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Martínez HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.01 vs actual lineup 3.06
  • Player execution +2.94 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.06 projection by 2.94 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +2.99 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Okamoto HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.0 — actual was 8 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.