Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Trevor Larnach LF
- 3 Josh Bell DH
- 4 Ryan Jeffers C
- 5 Kody Clemens 1B
- 6 Austin Martin RF
- 7 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 Tristan Gray 3B
- 1 Bo Bichette 3B
- 2 Juan Soto DH
- 3 Francisco Alvarez C
- 4 Luis Robert Jr. CF
- 5 Brett Baty RF
- 6 Mark Vientos 1B
- 7 Marcus Semien 2B
- 8 Ronny Mauricio SS
- 9 Carson Benge LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| NYM | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with MIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.77 vs actual lineup 4.70
- Player execution +3.30 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.70 projection by 3.30 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.23 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Gray HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.88 vs actual lineup 3.93
- Player execution +6.07 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.93 projection by 6.07 (scored 10)
- Game variance +6.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Soto 0-for-3 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.9 — actual was 8 – 10.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.