Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trea Turner SS
- 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
- 3 Bryce Harper 1B
- 4 Felix Reyes LF
- 5 Brandon Marsh RF
- 6 Bryson Stott 2B
- 7 Alec Bohm 3B
- 8 Justin Crawford CF
- 9 Garrett Stubbs C
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Alex Bregman 3B
- 3 Ian Happ LF
- 4 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 5 Carson Kelly C
- 6 Michael Busch 1B
- 7 Dansby Swanson SS
- 8 Matt Shaw CF
- 9 Miguel Amaya DH
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-6 with PHI listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.61 vs actual lineup 3.61
- Player execution +3.39 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.61 projection by 3.39 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.39 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
García HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.14
- Player execution +4.86 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.14 projection by 4.86 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Hoerner 0-for-5 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.6 – 3.2 — actual was 7 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.