Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward DH
- 3 Dylan Beavers RF
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Samuel Basallo C
- 6 Leody Taveras CF
- 7 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 8 Colton Cowser LF
- 9 Coby Mayo 3B
- 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
- 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
- 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
- 4 Salvador Perez DH
- 5 Carter Jensen C
- 6 Michael Massey 2B
- 7 Jac Caglianone RF
- 8 Lane Thomas LF
- 9 Kyle Isbel CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| KC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BAL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.62 vs actual lineup 3.57
- Player execution +4.43 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.57 projection by 4.43 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.38 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Mayo HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.12 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.69
- Player execution +1.31 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.69 projection by 1.31 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Isbel HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.6 – 4.8 — actual was 8 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.