ARCHIVE April 21, 2026
April 21, 2026 · NL East

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets

April 21, 2026Citi FieldPartly Cloudy 46°F · 11 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
12-11
5
vs
HOME
New York Mets
7-16
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
Simeon Woods Richardson
IP 5
HOME · NYM
Nolan McLean
Nolan McLean
IP 6.2

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Byron Buxton CF
  2. 2 Trevor Larnach LF
  3. 3 Josh Bell DH
  4. 4 Ryan Jeffers C
  5. 5 Kody Clemens 1B
  6. 6 Luke Keaschall 2B
  7. 7 Matt Wallner RF
  8. 8 Royce Lewis 3B
  9. 9 Brooks Lee SS
HOME · NYM
  1. 1 Marcus Semien 2B
  2. 2 Francisco Lindor SS
  3. 3 Luis Robert Jr. CF
  4. 4 Bo Bichette 3B
  5. 5 MJ Melendez DH
  6. 6 Francisco Alvarez C
  7. 7 Brett Baty RF
  8. 8 Mark Vientos 1B
  9. 9 Carson Benge LF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 000002102 5
NYM 003000000 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / D+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · NYM
Carlos Mendoza
D+ Lineup 2.9 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 0.9 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL
HOME · NYM
5-4 L1 +2 run diff
LW?WWLWLLW

Season series: 1-2 with MIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.14 vs actual lineup 3.19
  • Player execution +1.81 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.19 projection by 1.81 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +1.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Jeffers 0-for-3 batting 4th

HOME · New York Mets
  • Manager lineup cost +0.18 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.91 vs actual lineup 4.73
  • Player execution −1.73 R/G Players fell 1.73 short of the lineup's 4.73 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.91 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Semien 0-for-3 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 4.9 — actual was 5 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.