ARCHIVE April 21, 2026
April 21, 2026 · AL Cent

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals

April 21, 2026Kauffman StadiumPartly Cloudy 78°F · 14 mph, R To L
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles
11-13
5
vs
HOME
Kansas City Royals
8-16
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BAL
Shane Baz
Shane Baz
IP 6.1
HOME · KC
Kris Bubic
Kris Bubic
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · BAL
  1. 1 Taylor Ward LF
  2. 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
  3. 3 Adley Rutschman C
  4. 4 Pete Alonso DH
  5. 5 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
  6. 6 Weston Wilson 3B
  7. 7 Leody Taveras CF
  8. 8 Coby Mayo 1B
  9. 9 Blaze Alexander RF
HOME · KC
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
  3. 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
  4. 4 Salvador Perez C
  5. 5 Carter Jensen DH
  6. 6 Michael Massey 2B
  7. 7 Jac Caglianone RF
  8. 8 Isaac Collins LF
  9. 9 Kyle Isbel CF

Box score

  123456789 R
BAL 030000020 5
KC 010020111 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R
HOME · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
LLWWLLLLWL
HOME · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL

Season series: 2-1 with BAL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.94 vs actual lineup 3.95
  • Player execution +1.05 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.95 projection by 1.05 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +1.06 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ward 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.32 vs actual lineup 4.32
  • Player execution +1.68 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.32 projection by 1.68 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.68 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Pasquantino 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.3 — actual was 5 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.