Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Taylor Ward LF
- 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 3 Adley Rutschman C
- 4 Pete Alonso DH
- 5 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 6 Weston Wilson 3B
- 7 Leody Taveras CF
- 8 Coby Mayo 1B
- 9 Blaze Alexander RF
- 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
- 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
- 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
- 4 Salvador Perez C
- 5 Carter Jensen DH
- 6 Michael Massey 2B
- 7 Jac Caglianone RF
- 8 Isaac Collins LF
- 9 Kyle Isbel CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| KC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BAL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.94 vs actual lineup 3.95
- Player execution +1.05 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.95 projection by 1.05 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.06 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ward 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.32 vs actual lineup 4.32
- Player execution +1.68 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.32 projection by 1.68 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.68 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Pasquantino 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.3 — actual was 5 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.