Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
- 6 Spencer Steer LF
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Rece Hinds RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Yandy Díaz DH
- 5 Jake Fraley RF
- 6 Cedric Mullins CF
- 7 Nick Fortes C
- 8 Richie Palacios 2B
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with CIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.44 vs actual lineup 3.49
- Player execution +2.51 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.49 projection by 2.51 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.56 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost −0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.75 vs actual lineup 4.81
- Player execution −3.81 R/G Players fell 3.81 short of the lineup's 4.81 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.75 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Díaz 0-for-3 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.4 – 4.8 — actual was 6 – 1.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.