Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trea Turner SS
- 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
- 3 Bryce Harper 1B
- 4 Adolis García RF
- 5 Brandon Marsh LF
- 6 Alec Bohm 3B
- 7 Bryson Stott 2B
- 8 Justin Crawford CF
- 9 Rafael Marchán C
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Michael Busch 1B
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 6 Michael Conforto RF
- 7 Miguel Amaya C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CHC | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-6 with PHI listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.52 vs actual lineup 4.49
- Player execution −3.49 R/G Players fell 3.49 short of the lineup's 4.49 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.52 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Turner 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.78 vs actual lineup 4.73
- Player execution +0.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.73 projection by 0.27 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.22 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Swanson HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.5 – 4.8 — actual was 1 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.