Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward LF
- 3 Dylan Beavers DH
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Samuel Basallo C
- 6 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 7 Colton Cowser RF
- 8 Leody Taveras CF
- 9 Blaze Alexander 3B
- 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
- 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
- 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
- 4 Salvador Perez DH
- 5 Carter Jensen C
- 6 Michael Massey 2B
- 7 Jac Caglianone RF
- 8 Isaac Collins LF
- 9 Kyle Isbel CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| KC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BAL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.20
- Player execution +3.80 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.20 projection by 3.80 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Taveras HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.72 vs actual lineup 4.62
- Player execution +0.38 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.62 projection by 0.38 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.29 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Pasquantino 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.7 — actual was 7 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.