ARCHIVE April 20, 2026
April 20, 2026 · AL Cent

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals

April 20, 2026Kauffman StadiumClear 72°F · 13 mph, R To L
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles
11-12
7
vs
HOME
Kansas City Royals
7-16
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BAL
Kyle Bradish
Kyle Bradish
IP 5.1
HOME · KC
Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · BAL
  1. 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
  2. 2 Taylor Ward LF
  3. 3 Dylan Beavers DH
  4. 4 Pete Alonso 1B
  5. 5 Samuel Basallo C
  6. 6 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
  7. 7 Colton Cowser RF
  8. 8 Leody Taveras CF
  9. 9 Blaze Alexander 3B
HOME · KC
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
  3. 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
  4. 4 Salvador Perez DH
  5. 5 Carter Jensen C
  6. 6 Michael Massey 2B
  7. 7 Jac Caglianone RF
  8. 8 Isaac Collins LF
  9. 9 Kyle Isbel CF

Box score

  123456789101112 R
BAL 000000001015 7
KC 010000000013 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R
HOME · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
LLWWLLLLWL
HOME · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL

Season series: 2-1 with BAL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.20
  • Player execution +3.80 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.20 projection by 3.80 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +3.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Taveras HR from the 8-hole

HOME · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.72 vs actual lineup 4.62
  • Player execution +0.38 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.62 projection by 0.38 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.29 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Pasquantino 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.7 — actual was 7 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.