Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Yandy Díaz DH
- 5 Cedric Mullins CF
- 6 Richie Palacios 2B
- 7 Jonny DeLuca RF
- 8 Hunter Feduccia C
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
- 1 Jake Mangum LF
- 2 Nick Gonzales 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds RF
- 4 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 5 Oneil Cruz CF
- 6 Nick Yorke 3B
- 7 Konnor Griffin SS
- 8 Joey Bart C
- 9 Billy Cook 1B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.12 vs actual lineup 3.09
- Player execution −0.09 R/G Players fell 0.09 short of the lineup's 3.09 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Aranda 0-for-4 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost −0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.82 vs actual lineup 3.87
- Player execution +2.13 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.87 projection by 2.13 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.18 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Horwitz HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.8 — actual was 3 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.