Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Taylor Ward LF
- 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 3 Pete Alonso 1B
- 4 Johnathan Rodríguez RF
- 5 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 6 Weston Wilson 3B
- 7 Coby Mayo DH
- 8 Sam Huff C
- 9 Blaze Alexander CF
- 1 Steven Kwan CF
- 2 Angel Martínez LF
- 3 José Ramírez DH
- 4 Rhys Hoskins 1B
- 5 David Fry RF
- 6 Daniel Schneemann 3B
- 7 Juan Brito 2B
- 8 Austin Hedges C
- 9 Brayan Rocchio SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-3 with BAL listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.27 vs actual lineup 3.20
- Player execution +0.80 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.20 projection by 0.80 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.73 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Henderson 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.14 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.30 vs actual lineup 4.15
- Player execution +3.85 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.15 projection by 3.85 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.70 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Kwan 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.3 – 4.3 — actual was 4 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.