Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Yandy Díaz DH
- 5 Jake Fraley RF
- 6 Cedric Mullins CF
- 7 Richie Palacios 2B
- 8 Hunter Feduccia C
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 6 Nick Yorke 3B
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Konnor Griffin SS
- 9 Henry Davis C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.09 vs actual lineup 3.02
- Player execution +4.98 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.02 projection by 4.98 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.91 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.16
- Player execution +3.84 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.16 projection by 3.84 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lowe 0-for-5 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.2 — actual was 8 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.