San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Miguel Andujar DH
- 7 Ty France 1B
- 8 Freddy Fermin C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 1 Zach Neto SS
- 2 Mike Trout CF
- 3 Nolan Schanuel 1B
- 4 Jo Adell RF
- 5 Yoán Moncada DH
- 6 Oswald Peraza 3B
- 7 Josh Lowe LF
- 8 Logan O'Hoppe C
- 9 Adam Frazier 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with SD listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.70 vs actual lineup 4.66
- Player execution −0.66 R/G Players fell 0.66 short of the lineup's 4.66 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.70 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Merrill 0-for-5 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.98 vs actual lineup 3.90
- Player execution −2.90 R/G Players fell 2.90 short of the lineup's 3.90 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.98 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Adell 0-for-3 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.0 — actual was 4 – 1.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.